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1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bc4 d6
A line for Black. Every figure below is computed separately for each rating band, and every one carries its own sample size.
| Band | White | Draw | Black | Blunder | Book exit | Games | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 600 | 52.4% | 3.8% | 43.8% | 57.1% | ply 6.1 | 19,212 | D |
| 1000 | 51.1% | 4.0% | 45.0% | 56.5% | ply 6.2 | 80,249 | D |
| 1400 | 50.7% | 4.0% | 45.4% | 41.4% | ply 6.2 | 54,702 | C |
| 1800 | 50.7% | 4.5% | 44.7% | 39.0% | ply 6.1 | 72,563 | C |
Results by band
All four bands are on the page. The one matching your rating is marked. Nothing here is averaged across bands.
At 600, the Italian Game: Paris Defense scores 43.8% for Black across 19,212 games. Most openings score better than this at this level. Games in this line leave known theory around move 4 on average, and 57.1% include an early material blunder (28 games at 600).
At 1000, the Italian Game: Paris Defense scores 45.0% for Black across 80,249 games. Most openings score better than this at this level. Games in this line leave known theory around move 4 on average, and 56.5% include an early material blunder (92 games at 1000).
At 1400, the Italian Game: Paris Defense scores 45.4% for Black across 54,702 games. That is below average at this level. Games in this line leave known theory around move 4 on average, and 41.4% include an early material blunder (87 games at 1400).
At 1800, the Italian Game: Paris Defense scores 44.7% for Black across 72,563 games. That is below average at this level. Games in this line leave known theory around move 4 on average, and 39.0% include an early material blunder (95 games at 1800).
Blunders and traps
The known traps that live inside the Italian Game: Paris Defense. The rates are how often each one actually lands in your band, counted against every sampled game in that band.
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1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bc4 d6 4. Nc3 Bg4 5. Nxe5 Bxd1
Sprung by White. The move that invites it is Bxd1.
Grabbing the queen after 5. Nxe5 loses to a forced mate in two. Black limits the damage with 5...Nxe5, but after 6. Qxg4 White regains the piece and keeps an extra pawn.
Read as: how often this trap line is completed per sampled game in the band.
How the Blunder Rate is measured. A material swing of three points or more inside the first 24 half-moves after leaving book, detected without an engine evaluation. It is a proxy for how sharp a position is in practice, not an engine verdict, and it is computed from a monthly game sample rather than the full corpus behind the win rates. Trap hit rates count a trap only when its full line is completed on the board.
Questions
At 600, the Italian Game: Paris Defense scores 43.8% for Black across 19,212 games. Most openings score better than this at this level. Games in this line leave known theory around move 4 on average, and 57.1% include an early material blunder (28 games at 600).
At 1000, the Italian Game: Paris Defense scores 45.0% for Black across 80,249 games. Most openings score better than this at this level. Games in this line leave known theory around move 4 on average, and 56.5% include an early material blunder (92 games at 1000).
The Italian Game: Paris Defense (C50) is a line for Black. The main line runs 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bc4 d6.